ʻOiai ma ka hapa ʻelua o 2021, ua kuhikuhi kekahi mau ʻoihana kaʻa e hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ka pilikia pōkole o ka chip i 2022, akā ua hoʻonui nā OEM i nā kūʻai a me ka noʻonoʻo pāʻani me kekahi, i hui pū ʻia me ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka mana hana chip automotive-grade. Aia nā ʻoihana i ke kahua o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hiki ke hana, a ʻo ka mākeke honua i kēia manawa ke hoʻopilikia nui ʻia e ka nele o nā cores.
I ka manawa like, me ka hoʻololi wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana kaʻa i ka electrification a me ka naʻauao, e hoʻololi nui ʻia ke kaulahao ʻoihana o ka lako chip.
1. ʻO ka ʻeha o MCU ma lalo o ka nele o ke kumu
I kēia manawa ke nānā nei i ka hemahema o nā cores i hoʻomaka i ka hopena o 2020, ʻo ka laha ʻana ke kumu nui o ka ʻole ma waena o ka hāʻawi ʻana a me ke koi ʻana o nā pahu kaʻa.ʻOiai ʻo kahi loiloi koʻikoʻi o ka hoʻolālā noi o ka honua MCU (microcontroller) chips e hōʻike ana mai 2019 a 2020, ʻo ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā MCU i nā noi uila automotive e noho 33% o ka mākeke noi haʻahaʻa, akā hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ke keʻena pūnaewele mamao a hiki i luna. Ua hopohopo nā mea hoʻolālā chip, ua hoʻopilikia nui ʻia nā ʻoihana chip a me nā ʻoihana hoʻāʻo e nā pilikia e like me ka pani ʻana o ke ahulau.
ʻO nā mea kanu hana chip e pili ana i nā ʻoihana koʻikoʻi o ka hana e pilikia ana i ka nele o nā limahana koʻikoʻi a me ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke kapena ma 2020. Ma hope o ka hoʻololi ʻia ʻana o ka hoʻolālā chip upstream i nā pono o nā hui kaʻa, ʻaʻole hiki iā ia ke hoʻonohonoho piha i ka hana ʻana, e paʻakikī ai. no ka hāʻawi ʻia ʻana o nā chips i ka mana piha.Ma ka lima o ka hale hana kaʻa, ʻike ʻia ke kūlana o ka lawa ʻole o ka hana kaʻa.
I ʻAukake i ka makahiki i hala, STMicroelectronics 'Muar plant ma Muar, Malaysia ua koi ʻia e pani i kekahi mau hale hana ma muli o ka hopena o ke ahulau lei aliʻi hou, a ʻo ka pani ʻana i alakaʻi pololei i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā chips no Bosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU a me aia nā ʻōnaehana ʻē aʻe i kahi kūlana o ka hoʻolako ʻana no ka manawa lōʻihi.
Eia kekahi, ma 2021, ʻo nā pōʻino kūlohelohe e like me nā ʻōlaʻi a me nā ahi e hiki ʻole ai i kekahi mau mea hana ke hana i ka wā pōkole.I ka malama o Feberuari i ka makahiki i hala, ua poino nui ke olai i ka Renesas Electronics o Iapana, kekahi o na mea hoolako chip nui o ka honua.
ʻO ka manaʻo hewa ʻole o ke koi ʻana i nā ʻāpana kaʻa e nā hui kaʻa, i hui pū ʻia me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ua hoʻohuli ʻia nā mea hana o luna i ka mana hana o nā pahu kaʻa i loko o nā ʻāpana mea kūʻai aku i mea e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ai i ke kumukūʻai o nā mea, ua hopena i ka MCU a ʻO CIS ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa ma waena o nā pahu kaʻa a me nā huahana uila mainstream.(CMOS kiʻi sensor) i ka hemahema nui.
Mai ka manaʻo ʻenehana, aia ma kahi o 40 mau ʻano o nā mīkini semiconductor automotive kahiko, a ʻo ka huina o nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia ʻo 500-600, ʻo ia hoʻi ka MCU, nā semiconductors mana (IGBT, MOSFET, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe). nā mea hana analog.ʻO nā kaʻa ʻokoʻa pū kekahi E hoʻohana ʻia kahi pūʻulu o nā huahana e like me ADAS auxiliary chips, CIS, AI processors, lidars, millimeter-wave radars a me MEMS.
E like me ka nui o nā koi kaʻa, ʻo ka mea i hoʻopilikia nui ʻia i kēia pilikia pōkole nui ʻo ia ka mea e pono ai ke kaʻa kuʻuna ma mua o 70 mau pahu MCU, a ʻo ka MCU kaʻa ʻo ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) a me ECU (Nā ʻāpana nui o ka puʻupuʻu mana nui o ke kaʻa. ).Ma ka lawe ʻana i ke kumu nui o ka hāʻule ʻana o Haval H6 i hāʻawi ʻia e Great Wall i nā manawa he nui mai ka makahiki i hala ma ke ʻano he laʻana, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Great Wall i ka emi ʻana o ke kūʻai nui ʻana o H6 i nā mahina he nui ma muli o ka lawa ʻole o ka lako o ka Bosch ESP i hoʻohana ai.ʻO ka Euler Black Cat a me White Cat kaulana i hoʻolaha mua ʻia i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka hana ma Malaki o kēia makahiki ma muli o nā pilikia e like me ka ʻoki ʻana i ka lako ESP a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai chip.
ʻO ka mea hilahila, ʻoiai ke kūkulu nei nā hale hana chip kaʻa a hiki i nā laina hana wafer hou i 2021, a ke hoʻāʻo nei e hoʻoneʻe i ke kaʻina hana o nā pahu kaʻa i ka laina hana kahiko a me ka laina hana 12-inch hou i ka wā e hiki mai ana, i mea e hoʻonui ai i ka mana hana a loaʻa ka waiwai o ka pālākiō, Eia naʻe, ʻoi aku ka hapa o ka hapalua makahiki o ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā lako semiconductor.Eia kekahi, lōʻihi ka manawa no ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka laina hana, ka hōʻoia ʻana o ka huahana a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka hiki ke hana, ka mea e hana pono ai ka mana hana hou ma 2023-2024..
He mea kūpono ke haʻi ʻia ʻoiai ua lōʻihi ka paʻakikī, ua manaʻo mau nā hui kaʻa e pili ana i ka mākeke.A ʻo ka mana hana chip hou i manaʻo ʻia e hoʻoponopono i ka pilikia nui o ka hana chip i kēia wā e hiki mai ana.
2. Ke kahua kaua hou ma lalo o ka ike uila
Eia nō naʻe, no ka ʻoihana kaʻa, hiki i ka hoʻonā ʻana o ka pilikia chip i kēia manawa ke hoʻopau wale i ka pono wikiwiki o ka lako o ka mākeke o kēia manawa a me ke koi asymmetry.I ke alo o ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā ʻoihana uila a me nā ʻoihana akamai, e hoʻonui nui ʻia ka hoʻolako ʻana o nā mīkini kaʻa i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
Me ka piʻi nui ʻana o ka noi no nā kaʻa i hoʻohui ʻia i nā huahana electrified, a i ka manawa o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o FOTA a me ka hoʻokele maʻalahi, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā pahu no nā kaʻa ikehu hou mai 500-600 i ka wā o nā kaʻa wahie i 1,000 a 1,200.Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā ʻano mai 40 a 150.
ʻO kekahi poʻe loea i ka ʻoihana kaʻa i ʻōlelo ʻia ma ke kahua o nā kaʻa uila akamai kiʻekiʻe i ka wā e hiki mai ana, e hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā pahu kaʻa hoʻokahi i nā manawa he nui i ʻoi aku ma mua o 3,000 mau ʻāpana, a me ka hapa o nā semiconductors automotive i ke kumu kūʻai o ka waiwai. e piʻi ka kaʻa holoʻokoʻa mai 4% i 2019 a i 12 i 2025. %, a hiki ke piʻi i 20% e 2030. ʻAʻole kēia wale nō ka manaʻo i ka wā o ka naʻauao uila, ke piʻi nei ka noi no nā chips no nā kaʻa, akā ʻo ia hoʻi. hōʻike i ka piʻi wikiwiki o ka paʻakikī ʻenehana a me ke kumukūʻai o nā chips i koi ʻia no nā kaʻa.
ʻAʻole like me nā OEM kuʻuna, kahi 70% o nā ʻāpana no nā kaʻa wahie he 40-45nm a ʻo 25% nā ʻāpana haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma luna o 45nm, ʻo ka hapa o nā chips i ke kaʻina hana 40-45nm no ka mainstream a me nā kaʻa uila kiʻekiʻe ma ka mākeke. ua hāʻule i ka 25%.45%, aʻo ka hapa o nā chips ma luna o ke kaʻina hana 45nm he 5% wale nō.Mai ka ʻike loea, ʻo nā pahu kaʻina hana kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe ma lalo o 40nm a ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o 10nm a me 7nm kaʻina hana he mau wahi hoʻokūkū hou i ka wā hou o ka ʻoihana kaʻa.
Wahi a kahi hōʻike noiʻi i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e Hushan Capital i ka makahiki 2019, ua piʻi wikiwiki ka nui o nā semiconductors mana i ke kaʻa holoʻokoʻa mai 21% i ka wā o nā kaʻa wahie i 55%, ʻoiai ua hāʻule nā pahu MCU mai 23% a 11%.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka mana hana chip i hōʻike ʻia e nā mea hana like ʻole i kaupalena ʻia i nā chips MCU kuʻuna i kēia manawa ke kuleana no ka engine/chassis/body control.
No nā kaʻa naʻauao uila, AI chips kuleana no ka ʻike hoʻokele kaʻawale a me ka hui ʻana;nā modula mana e like me IGBT (insulated gate dual transistor) kuleana no ka hoʻololi mana;Ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka noi ʻana o nā mīkini sensor no ka nānā ʻana i ka radar kaʻa kaʻawale.E lilo paha ia i pōʻai hou o nā pilikia "lack of core" e kū ai nā hui kaʻa i ka pae aʻe.
Eia nō naʻe, i ka wā hou, ʻo ka mea e keakea nei i nā ʻoihana kaʻa ʻaʻole paha ʻo ka pilikia o ka hiki ke hoʻopili ʻia e nā kumu o waho, akā ʻo ka "ʻāʻī paʻa" o ka chip i kaupalena ʻia e ka ʻaoʻao ʻenehana.
I ka lawe ʻana i ka koi no nā pahu AI i lawe ʻia e ka naʻauao ma ke ʻano he laʻana, ua hōʻea ka nui o ka helu helu o nā polokalamu hoʻokele autonomous i ka pae ʻelua-helu TOPS (trillion operations per second), a ʻaʻole hiki i ka mana helu o nā MCU automotive kahiko ke hoʻokō i nā koi computing. o na kaa kuokoa.Ua komo nā pahu AI e like me GPU, FPGA, a me ASIC i ka mākeke automotive.
I ka hapa mua o ka makahiki i hala, ua hoʻolaha kūkala ʻia ʻo Horizon ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia kāna huahana kaʻa kaʻa ʻekolu, ʻo ka Journey 5 series chips.Wahi a ka ʻikepili kūhelu, loaʻa i ka Journey 5 series chips ka mana helu o 96TOPS, ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mana o 20W, a me ka ratio pono o ka ikehu o 4.8TOPS/W..Ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka ʻenehana kaʻina hana 16nm o ka FSD (full autonomous driving function) chip i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e Tesla i 2019, nā ʻāpana o kahi pahu hoʻokahi me ka mana computing o 72TOPS, kahi hoʻohana mana o 36W a me kahi ratio o ka ikehu o 2TOPS/W. ua hoʻomaikaʻi nui ʻia.Ua lanakila pū kēia hoʻokō i ka lokomaikaʻi a me ka hui pū ʻana o nā hui kaʻa he nui me SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, a me Ideal.
Ke alakaʻi ʻia nei e ka naʻauao, ua wikiwiki loa ka komo ʻana o ka ʻoihana.E hoʻomaka ana mai Tesla's FSD, ʻo ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā pahu mana nui AI e like me ka wehe ʻana i kahi pahu Pandora.Ma hope koke iho o ka huakaʻi 5, ua hoʻokuʻu koke ʻo NVIDIA i ka chip Orin e lilo i hoʻokahi chip.Ua hoʻonui ka mana helu i 254TOPS.Ma nā ʻōlelo o nā ʻenehana ʻenehana, ua ʻike ʻo Nvidia i kahi chip Atlan SoC me ka mana helu hoʻokahi a hiki i 1000TOPS no ka lehulehu i ka makahiki i hala.I kēia manawa, paʻa paʻa ʻo NVIDIA i kahi kūlana monopoly i ka mākeke GPU o nā ʻāpana mana o ka automotive, e mālama ana i kahi mākeke o 70% a puni ka makahiki.
ʻOiai ʻo ke komo ʻana o ke kelepona kelepona nui Huawei i loko o ka ʻoihana kaʻa ua hoʻomaka i nā nalu o ka hoʻokūkū ma ka ʻoihana chip automotive, ua ʻike ʻia ma lalo o ke keakea ʻana o nā kumu o waho, ua loaʻa iā Huawei ka ʻike hoʻolālā waiwai i kahi kaʻina hana 7nm SoC, akā ʻaʻole hiki. kōkua i nā mea hana chip kiʻekiʻe.hoʻolaha makeke.
Manaʻo nā hui noiʻi e piʻi wikiwiki ana ka waiwai o nā paikikala chip AI mai US $ 100 i 2019 a i US $ 1,000+ e 2025;i ka manawa like, e hoʻonui ʻia ka mākeke chip AI chip home automotive mai US $ 900 miliona ma 2019 a i 91 ma 2025. Hoʻokahi haneli miliona US kālā.ʻO ka ulu wikiwiki ʻana o ka noi mākeke a me ka monopoly ʻenehana o nā chips kiʻekiʻe e ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā ʻoihana kaʻa.
E like me ke koi ʻana i ka mākeke chip AI, IGBT, ma ke ʻano he mea semiconductor koʻikoʻi (me nā chips, insulating substrates, terminals a me nā mea ʻē aʻe) i ka kaʻa ikehu hou me ka lakene kumukūʻai a hiki i 8-10%, loaʻa pū kekahi. he hopena koʻikoʻi i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻoihana kaʻa.ʻOiai ua hoʻomaka nā hui kūloko e like me BYD, Star Semiconductor, a me Silan Microelectronics e hoʻolako i nā IGBT no nā ʻoihana kaʻa kūloko, i kēia manawa, ua kaupalena ʻia ka mana hana IGBT o nā ʻoihana i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka nui o nā ʻoihana, e paʻakikī ana i ka uhi i nā kumu ikehu hou e piʻi wikiwiki ana.ulu makeke.
ʻO ka nūhou maikaʻi ma ke alo o ka pae aʻe o SiC e hoʻololi ana i nā IGBT, ʻaʻole mamao loa nā hui Kina i ka hoʻolālā, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hoʻolālā SiC a me nā mana hana e pili ana i ka hiki i ka IGBT R&D hiki ke manaʻo ʻia e kōkua i nā hui kaʻa a ʻenehana.Loaʻa i nā mea hana ke kiʻekiʻe i ka pae aʻe o ka hoʻokūkū.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, hana akamai nui
Ke alo nei i ka hemahema o nā ʻāpana i ka ʻoihana kaʻa, ua kūpaʻa ʻo Yunyi i ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka pilikia hoʻolako o nā mea semiconductor no nā mea kūʻai aku i ka ʻoihana kaʻa.Inā makemake ʻoe e ʻike e pili ana i nā mea komo Yunyi Semiconductor a hana i kahi nīnau, e kaomi i ka loulou:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mar-25-2022